BCS possiblity for Iowa

The college football regular season is almost over, with championship games in the Big XII, Atlantic Coast, Southeast, Mid-American and Conference USA conferences along with a few other games of importance (Oregon-Oregon State for the Pacific-10 conference crown, Cincinnati-Pittsburgh for the Big East title, neither a "championship game," just ended up to be that way), the Iowa Hawkeye football team is waiting at home to see where they will go this holiday season.

With a 10-2 record, 6-2 in the Big Ten Conference with losses to Northwestern and Ohio State but wins at Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State, the debate rages on whether Iowa deserves to earn an at-large bid into the Bowl Championship Series pre-championship games. With the loss at Ohio State, Iowa cannot get an automatic bid. Of course, had they won out, they could've been just on the outside looking in at the Citi BCS National Championship Game on Jan. 7, but would've been assured of a Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi berth at the least.

Instead, they have to wait to see where they'll end up in the final BCS rankings next Sunday, and which bowl will invite them. Pundits put the Hawks in one of two bowl games depending on both the result of the Big XII championship and the opinion of the bowl committees: the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl or the Capital One Bowl.

Here's the reason why they're considered for the Fiesta Bowl: Iowa has been known to have its fans travel well to the bowl games they've been invited. Also, tens of thousands of Iowa natives/residents/graduates currently live or winter in the Phoenix area, so the local tickets will sell out.

However, many pundits are arguing that Penn State will be the better choice in the BCS, going to the FedEx Orange Bowl to face the ACC champion, either Georgia Tech or Clemson. For one, PSU has one of the largest alumni associations in the nation, and another, they have Joe Paterno, which would be a major draw for a TV audience.

I don't think TV ratings will be much of a factor for the Fiesta or Orange bowls to choose between Iowa and Penn State, and this is the reason why: Bowl committees want the teams that will provide the biggest economic impact for their communities -- in other words, more tickets sold, more money spent in the local stores, restaurants and hotels, and more bang for the buck to bring the teams there.

As I mentioned, the Fiesta Bowl will benefit from the number of Iowans and University of Iowa gradutates living or wintering or having retired in the Phoenix area. On top of that, about 50,000 Iowans will travel from the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Quad City airports or come by car or RV from places like Iowa City, Ottumwa, Dubuque, Cedar Falls and every small town in between to follow the Hawkeyes for the game. When the Hawks were selected by the Orange Bowl committee to replace Miami (Florida) for the January 2003 game (when the Hurricanes faced the Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl when it was the NCG before the extra game was enacted), 50,000-plus Hawkeye fans filled what is now called Land Shark Stadium when Iowa faced USC.

Of course, the Trojans trounced the Hawkeyes that night, but that's because Kirk Ferentz and company weren't as prepared for that game.

Anyway, for the Iowa-to-the-Fiesta scenario to work, Texas must beat Nebraska next Saturday in the Dr. Pepper Big XII Championship Game. Otherwise, if Nebraska wins, Nebraska will go to the Fiesta Bowl as the Bix XII champion (the Fiesta has a tie-in with the Big XII champion). The Longhorns would then get one of the at-large bids, likely to either the Orange or Nokia Sugar bowls. In that scenario, the Sugar would get the only replacement pick for the winner of the SEC Championship Game, either Florida or Alabama, who would go to the NCG in Pasadena Jan. 7. Everyone expects the Sugar Bowl to take the loser of that game, citing the conference's tie-in with the bowl. The Orange Bowl would have the next choice, which likely would be Texas in that situation to face the Clemson-Georgia Tech winner. Next would be the Fiesta Bowl. That would be an interesting choice there for an opponent for Nebraska. Do they take a 10-2 Iowa team, a 10-2 Penn State team, an undefeated Texas Christian team (which would have an automatic bid due to being at least No. 4 in the final BCS standings despite not being in an automatic-qualifying conference, being in the Mountain West Conference), the Big East champion or an undefeated Boise State (who wouldn't be an automatic qualifier because it would be lower-ranked than either TCU or Cincinnati, coming from the Western Athletic Conference)? I would think they would have to take either Cincinnati (or Pitt if the Panthers win) or TCU. The remaining team would go to the Sugar Bowl.

If all that happens, Iowa would go to the Capital One Bowl in Orlando against likely LSU. Of course, the last time Iowa and LSU met in that game, Iowa won with a last-second touchdown pass from Drew Tate to Colin Sandeman.

However, here's what I believe will happen if the most-likely scenario happens:

BCS Championship: Texas vs. SEC champion

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon/Oregon State winner

Fiesta Bowl: Iowa vs. Boise State

Orange Bowl: ACC champion vs. Cincinnati

Sugar Bowl: SEC runner-up vs. TCU

Capital One Bowl: Penn State vs. LSU

We'll find it all out next Sunday.